{
  "meta": {
    "title": "US AI data-center GW geography + regional power-risk desk map",
    "as_of": "2026-09-29",
    "timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong",
    "audience": "GUCCI via 小智 study desk",
    "disclaimer_zh": "非官方汇编 · reported|estimate|scenario 分层 · 非投资建议 · GW 多为公告/追踪 nameplate，≠已通电。",
    "prior_context": "Oracle Project Jupiter NM ~2.45 GW force majeure (fuel-cell air permit + Green Chile gas pipeline delay to ~2027-02); supply page https://invest-watch-yd0.pages.dev/ai-supply/",
    "method": [
      "Each project: location, announced MW/GW, status (energized|under_construction|announced), power notes, delays",
      "OpenAI Stargate treated as tenant/anchor where landlord is Oracle/Crusoe/STACK/Vantage/SB Energy — do not double-count",
      "MW figures mix IT vs facility; labelled where known; otherwise nameplate as disclosed",
      "Region risk scores are desk scenario (softest), informed by reported queue/transformer/water facts"
    ]
  },
  "projects": [
    {
      "operator": "Oracle / OCI",
      "role": "landlord_tenant_anchor",
      "project": "Project Jupiter / Stargate Doña Ana",
      "location": "Santa Teresa, Doña Ana County, NM",
      "region": "Southwest_NM",
      "announced_MW": 2450,
      "status": "under_construction",
      "nature_MW": "reported",
      "power_source": "On-site Bloom Energy fuel-cell microgrid ~2.46 GW + grid; fed by Transwestern Green Chile natgas pipeline",
      "delays": "Oracle force majeure notice ~2026-09-24 to STACK/Blue Owl; air permit pending NMED; pipeline in-service pushed to ~2027-02 after NM State Land Office ROW issues; NM Supreme Court Sep 2026 allowed permit hearings to resume; target ops ~2028 unchanged per Oracle statement",
      "nature_delay": "reported",
      "sources": [
        "El Paso Matters 2026-09-24",
        "ENR",
        "Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance",
        "Santa Fe New Mexican 2026-09-17"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "OpenAI (tenant)",
      "role": "tenant_anchor",
      "project": "Stargate Abilene (Crusoe / Oracle partners)",
      "location": "Abilene, TX",
      "region": "ERCOT",
      "announced_MW": 1200,
      "status": "under_construction",
      "nature_MW": "estimate",
      "energized_MW_note": "~200–420 MW early buildings reported variously; later buildings behind mid-2026 permits",
      "nature_energized": "estimate",
      "power_source": "Behind-the-meter gas turbines (Crusoe GE Vernova orders); ERCOT interconnection for remainder",
      "delays": "Buildings 3–4 originally Mar 2026 finish; still not fully online mid-2026 per Crusoe releases / Distilled.Earth",
      "nature_delay": "reported",
      "sources": [
        "SiliconReport",
        "Distilled.Earth",
        "Crusoe releases"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "OpenAI (tenant)",
      "role": "tenant_anchor",
      "project": "Stargate portfolio (multi-site)",
      "location": "TX (Abilene, Shackelford/Frontier, Milam) · WI Port Washington · MI 'The Barn' · NM Jupiter",
      "region": "multi",
      "announced_MW": 9000,
      "status": "announced",
      "nature_MW": "estimate",
      "power_source": "Mix of BTM gas + landlord PPAs; SoftBank SB Energy Ohio 10 GW program adjacent/related capital",
      "delays": "Program >9 GW planned; Abilene first live but slow vs xAI pace narrative",
      "nature_delay": "estimate",
      "note": "Do NOT add to Oracle/Crusoe landlord GW",
      "sources": [
        "SiliconReport Stargate dossier",
        "Momoview 2026 AI compute map"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Microsoft Azure",
      "role": "operator",
      "project": "Fairwater Mount Pleasant",
      "location": "Mount Pleasant / Racine County, WI",
      "region": "Midwest",
      "announced_MW": 3300,
      "status": "under_construction",
      "nature_MW": "estimate",
      "power_source": "Utility interconnection (WE Energies / MISO footprint); second similar-size DC committed (+$4B)",
      "delays": "First campus targeted early 2026 online per Microsoft blog Sep 2025; nameplate 3.3 GW is multi-year campus tracker figure",
      "nature_delay": "estimate",
      "sources": [
        "Microsoft On the Issues 2025-09-18",
        "aidatacenterindex"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Microsoft Azure",
      "role": "operator",
      "project": "Fairwater Atlanta",
      "location": "Fayetteville, Fayette County, GA",
      "region": "Southeast",
      "announced_MW": 1500,
      "status": "energized",
      "nature_MW": "estimate",
      "power_source": "Georgia Power / Southeast grid; dense AI design (press: two stories, atypical UPS)",
      "delays": null,
      "sources": [
        "DatacenterDynamics 2025-11",
        "Data Center Census"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Microsoft Azure",
      "role": "operator",
      "project": "Pecos campus + Chevron BTM gas",
      "location": "Pecos, TX",
      "region": "ERCOT",
      "announced_MW": 2000,
      "status": "announced",
      "nature_MW": "reported",
      "power_source": "Behind-the-meter natgas up to ~2.67 GW with Chevron; bypasses ERCOT queue for initial phases",
      "delays": "Announced Jun 2026; turbines not yet online; 5–7 year build",
      "nature_delay": "reported",
      "sources": [
        "Microsoft blog 2026-06-22",
        "SiliconReport",
        "Global Data Center Hub"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Amazon / AWS",
      "role": "operator",
      "project": "Project Rainier (Anthropic train)",
      "location": "New Carlisle, IN",
      "region": "Midwest",
      "announced_MW": 2200,
      "status": "energized",
      "nature_MW": "estimate",
      "power_source": "Grid-powered (exception vs gas-first peers); Trainium2 cluster ~500k chips reported Oct 2025",
      "delays": null,
      "sources": [
        "CNBC 2025-10-29",
        "SiliconReport"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Amazon / AWS",
      "role": "operator",
      "project": "US West Oregon region + Susquehanna PA nuclear PPA / AI campuses",
      "location": "OR (Columbia River) · PA Susquehanna · OH us-east-2 · VA Caroline/Spotsylvania planned",
      "region": "multi",
      "announced_MW": 2400,
      "status": "energized",
      "nature_MW": "estimate",
      "note": "Oregon ~2.4 GW tracker for region aggregate; PA nuclear PPA separate; VA Mattameade ~770 MW planned",
      "power_source": "Hydro/grid PNW; nuclear PPA PA; PJM/ERCOT/MISO mix",
      "delays": "PNW hydro/drought + Oregon DC already ~1/4 state power narrative (2026 reports)",
      "nature_delay": "estimate",
      "sources": [
        "aidatacenterindex",
        "OPB/JPR Oregon DC report 2026-09",
        "AWS disclosures"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Google / GCP",
      "role": "operator",
      "project": "Council Bluffs IA · Pryor Creek OK · The Dalles OR · Pine Island MN · GA nuclear PPA",
      "location": "IA / OK / OR / MN / GA",
      "region": "multi",
      "announced_MW": 3100,
      "status": "energized",
      "nature_MW": "estimate",
      "note": "Epoch US current AI IT lead ~3.1 GW; individual campuses often 0.5–0.6 GW class",
      "power_source": "Grid + nuclear PPAs (Georgia Power reactor uprates / Google buyer narrative 2026-09); TPU campuses",
      "delays": "PNW water/hydro pressure; NoVA/PJM transmission for any eastward growth",
      "nature_delay": "estimate",
      "sources": [
        "Epoch AI",
        "AJC Georgia Power/Google 2026-09",
        "aidatacenterindex"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Meta",
      "role": "operator",
      "project": "Hyperion",
      "location": "Richland Parish, LA",
      "region": "Southeast",
      "announced_MW": 5000,
      "status": "under_construction",
      "nature_MW": "reported_plan",
      "note": "~2 GW by ~2030, full ~5 GW ~2032 per Meta/CNBC; SiliconReport lists 2 GW UC tranche",
      "power_source": "Entergy Louisiana gas plants (approval for multi-GW gas fleet serving Hyperion + more)",
      "delays": "Multi-year ramp; generation build in parallel",
      "nature_delay": "estimate",
      "sources": [
        "CNBC Hyperion",
        "Data Center Dynamics Entergy",
        "SiliconReport"
      ],
      "energized_MW_note": "Not GW-class energized yet; UC since 2025; Entergy 2.26 GW gas COD 2028-29; +5.278 GW gas pending LPSC",
      "nature_energized": "estimate",
      "power_abundance_call": "paper_ahead_of_power_approvals"
    },
    {
      "operator": "Meta",
      "role": "operator",
      "project": "Prometheus / New Albany OH · Lebanon IN ~1 GW · Eagle Mountain UT · El Paso TX · Beaver Dam WI",
      "location": "OH / IN / UT / TX / WI",
      "region": "multi",
      "announced_MW": 2600,
      "status": "under_construction",
      "nature_MW": "estimate",
      "note": "Meta–Vistra PJM nuclear agreements ~2.6 GW announced (power offtake, not DC nameplate)",
      "power_source": "PJM nuclear PPAs (Vistra); Midwest grid; West TX/UT utility",
      "delays": "PJM capacity adequacy narrative; nuclear PPA timing ≠ campus energization",
      "nature_delay": "estimate",
      "sources": [
        "EdgeUno Americas boom 2026",
        "aidatacenterindex Meta-Vistra"
      ],
      "energized_MW_note": "Prometheus alone ~0.5–0.63 GW IT energized of ~1 GW nameplate (estimate); Lebanon ~1 GW early UC",
      "nature_energized": "estimate"
    },
    {
      "operator": "xAI / SpaceX AI",
      "role": "operator",
      "project": "Colossus 1+2 Memphis–Southaven",
      "location": "Memphis TN / Southaven MS",
      "region": "Southeast",
      "announced_MW": 2000,
      "status": "under_construction",
      "nature_MW": "estimate",
      "energized_MW_note": "SemiAnalysis ~1.1 GW cooling/IT class assessed; Introl narrative combined ~2 GW / 555k+ GPUs (soft)",
      "nature_energized": "estimate",
      "power_source": "On-site gas turbines (Solaris JV); permitting fights / DOJ Clean Air intervention narratives",
      "delays": "Air-permit / turbine litigation risk; fast build relative to Stargate Abilene",
      "nature_delay": "reported",
      "sources": [
        "SiliconReport Colossus",
        "SemiAnalysis",
        "Utility Dive DOJ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "CoreWeave",
      "role": "neocloud",
      "project": "US fleet (Denton TX 600 · Lancaster PA 250 · Houston 200 · NoVA 150 · AZ/NJ/MO/etc.)",
      "location": "TX / PA / VA / AZ / NJ / MO / GA / IL / NV / MA",
      "region": "multi",
      "announced_MW": 2110,
      "status": "under_construction",
      "nature_MW": "estimate",
      "energized_MW_note": "Company active power 1.5 GW Q2'26 reported; YE26 guidance >1.85; contracted ~4.2",
      "nature_energized": "reported",
      "power_source": "Mostly leased colo + utility interconnection; ERCOT + PJM exposure; some overseas contracts",
      "delays": "Queue/transformer risk on NoVA and PJM sites; Denton large phase est. 2027",
      "nature_delay": "estimate",
      "sources": [
        "CoreWeave filings/earnings",
        "usdatamap CoreWeave",
        "prior desk JSON"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Nebius",
      "role": "neocloud",
      "project": "US campuses (Vineland NJ; Missouri & Pennsylvania self-build up to ~1.2 GW class each phased)",
      "location": "NJ / MO / PA (+ Finland EU)",
      "region": "PJM",
      "announced_MW": 5000,
      "status": "under_construction",
      "nature_MW": "reported",
      "note": "YE26 contracted power 5 GW; connected 0.8–1 GW guidance; Vineland ~300 MW UC with Microsoft tenant narrative + BTM engines",
      "power_source": "PJM interconnection + BTM engines (Norway cruise-ship engine deal narrative for NJ); EU sites separate",
      "delays": "Connected ≠ revenue; local protest Vineland; transformer/queue for GW phases",
      "nature_delay": "estimate",
      "sources": [
        "Nebius earnings",
        "SNJ Today",
        "Distilled.Earth",
        "prior desk"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "SoftBank / SB Energy (Stargate-adjacent landlord)",
      "role": "landlord",
      "project": "Piketon OH 10 GW campus",
      "location": "Pike County / Piketon, OH (former Portsmouth GDP)",
      "region": "Midwest",
      "announced_MW": 10000,
      "status": "announced",
      "nature_MW": "reported",
      "power_source": "Up to ~9.2 GW new natgas + transmission with AEP Ohio; DOE federal land lease; initial ~800 MW interconnection filing, ops target ~2028",
      "delays": "Groundbreaking Mar 2026; vast majority still paper; generation + transmission multi-year",
      "nature_delay": "estimate",
      "note": "Often OpenAI/Stargate capital adjacency — treat as landlord capacity not OpenAI IT",
      "sources": [
        "Data Center Frontier SoftBank 10 GW",
        "DOE/AEP Ohio notes"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "DigitalOcean",
      "role": "neocloud",
      "project": "2026 GPU capacity add + committed footprint",
      "location": "US multi (Richmond VA purpose-built; Atlanta-Douglasville Flexential cited; others undisclosed)",
      "region": "multi",
      "announced_MW": 31,
      "status": "under_construction",
      "nature_MW": "reported",
      "note": "2026 new 31 MW (≈6 MW first, rest H2); committed capacity ~155 MW; +$725M equipment financing Sep 2026",
      "power_source": "Colo/utility; NoVA-adjacent Richmond faces Dominion/PJM ecosystem constraints at larger scale",
      "delays": "Small vs hyperscale — power risk low absolute, but growth still grid-tied",
      "nature_delay": "estimate",
      "sources": [
        "DOCN disclosures / Zacks",
        "Flexential case study",
        "prior desk"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Cloudflare",
      "role": "edge_network",
      "project": "Global edge + Workers AI inference",
      "location": "300+ cities edge PoPs (not hyperscale AI campus)",
      "region": "multi",
      "announced_MW": null,
      "status": "energized",
      "nature_MW": "data_gap",
      "note": "No public GPU fleet MW/GW; CapEx intensity narrative low vs hyperscalers; not mapped as AI GW campus",
      "power_source": "Distributed colo — no single-region GW risk",
      "delays": null,
      "sources": [
        "Cloudflare earnings qualitative",
        "prior desk data_gap"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Crusoe (landlord)",
      "role": "landlord",
      "project": "Abilene Stargate campus + contracted AI infra",
      "location": "Abilene TX (+ other)",
      "region": "ERCOT",
      "announced_MW": 4900,
      "status": "under_construction",
      "nature_MW": "estimate",
      "note": "~4.9 GW contracted AI infra narrative; Abilene 1.2 GW campus; early energized hundreds MW — do not double-count with OpenAI/Oracle",
      "power_source": "BTM gas + ERCOT",
      "delays": "Later Abilene buildings slipped vs original Mar 2026",
      "nature_delay": "reported",
      "sources": [
        "prior desk",
        "Distilled.Earth",
        "Crusoe"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Applied Digital",
      "role": "landlord",
      "project": "Polaris Forge 1",
      "location": "Midwest (ND / regional)",
      "region": "Midwest",
      "announced_MW": 1410,
      "status": "under_construction",
      "nature_MW": "reported",
      "note": "Operating 175 MW; contracted critical IT 1.41 GW",
      "power_source": "Regional utility / MISO-adjacent",
      "delays": null,
      "sources": [
        "prior desk Applied Digital reported"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "region_rollup_GW_announced_pipeline": [
    {
      "region": "ERCOT",
      "label_zh": "ERCOT/德州",
      "approx_announced_GW": 9.5,
      "nature": "estimate",
      "note": "Abilene 1.2 + Pecos 2 + Crusoe book share + CW Denton/Houston + Meta El Paso fringe; mix IT/facility"
    },
    {
      "region": "Southwest_NM",
      "label_zh": "西南/新墨",
      "approx_announced_GW": 2.45,
      "nature": "reported",
      "note": "Jupiter dominant; force majeure elevates delivery risk"
    },
    {
      "region": "Southeast",
      "label_zh": "东南",
      "approx_announced_GW": 8.5,
      "nature": "estimate",
      "note": "Hyperion 2–5 + Colossus ~2 + Fairwater GA ~1.5 + Entergy gas build"
    },
    {
      "region": "Midwest",
      "label_zh": "中西部",
      "approx_announced_GW": 16.0,
      "nature": "estimate",
      "note": "SoftBank 10 (mostly paper) + Rainier 2.2 + Fairwater WI tracker 3.3 + Meta IN/OH + Applied Digital; SoftBank dominates headline"
    },
    {
      "region": "PJM",
      "label_zh": "PJM(含宾州/俄亥俄东/NJ)",
      "approx_announced_GW": 7.0,
      "nature": "estimate",
      "note": "Nebius 5 contracted book + CW PA/NJ + AWS Susquehanna + Meta-Vistra nuclear offtake (power≠DC)"
    },
    {
      "region": "Northern_VA",
      "label_zh": "北弗吉尼亚",
      "approx_announced_GW": 1.5,
      "nature": "estimate",
      "note": "Legacy dense market; new AI GW migrating out; CW Manassas 0.15 + DO Richmond + AWS VA planned ~0.77 — queue-bound"
    },
    {
      "region": "PNW",
      "label_zh": "太平洋西北",
      "approx_announced_GW": 3.0,
      "nature": "estimate",
      "note": "AWS Oregon region tracker ~2.4 + Google The Dalles; hydro/drought load share stress"
    }
  ],
  "power_risk_by_region": [
    {
      "region": "ERCOT",
      "label_zh": "ERCOT/德州",
      "risk_score_1to5": 4,
      "nature_score": "scenario",
      "interconnection_queue": "reported: Q1'26 alone ~198 GW large-load applications; ~86 GW under review ≈ peak load size (Ascend Analytics). SB6 (2025) large-load ≥75 MW study fees + curtailment protocols; BTM generation favored in batch studies.",
      "generation_adequacy": "estimate: Energy-only market; no capacity market backstop; reserve-margin batch studies gate load. BTM gas (Pecos/Abilene) reduces queue wait but adds fuel/turbine lead-time risk.",
      "water": "estimate: West TX arid; BTM gas plants add water/cooling scrutiny case-by-case.",
      "transformers": "reported: National LPT lead times ~128–160+ weeks; ERCOT speed advantage eroded by equipment.",
      "who_exposed": [
        "Microsoft Pecos",
        "OpenAI/Crusoe Abilene",
        "CoreWeave Denton/Houston",
        "Meta El Paso fringe"
      ],
      "headline_risk": "Queue flood + SB6 curtailment + turbine/transformer lead times; BTM helps speed but not equipment."
    },
    {
      "region": "PJM",
      "label_zh": "PJM",
      "risk_score_1to5": 4,
      "nature_score": "scenario",
      "interconnection_queue": "reported: Large-load interconnection ~40 months class (Carbon Direct May 2026 citation); FERC RM26-4 / co-located load tariff reforms 2026 redistribute cost more than shorten physical path.",
      "generation_adequacy": "reported/estimate: Capacity shortfall narratives up to ~15 GW by 2030 if load outpaces gen (Ascend); Meta-Vistra nuclear PPAs are offtake hedges not instant MW.",
      "water": "estimate: Moderate vs Southwest; site-specific.",
      "transformers": "reported: Same national 130–160 week LPT constraint; binding with transmission upgrades.",
      "who_exposed": [
        "Nebius NJ/PA/MO PJM-tied",
        "CoreWeave Lancaster/Lehigh/NoVA edge",
        "AWS Susquehanna",
        "Meta PJM nuclear strategy"
      ],
      "headline_risk": "Capacity adequacy + long studies; nuclear PPAs help mid-term, not 2026–27 energization."
    },
    {
      "region": "Southwest_NM",
      "label_zh": "西南/新墨西哥",
      "risk_score_1to5": 5,
      "nature_score": "scenario",
      "interconnection_queue": "estimate: Jupiter designed largely off-grid fuel cells — grid queue secondary; gas pipeline + air permit are binding.",
      "generation_adequacy": "reported: 2.46 GW Bloom fuel-cell microgrid needs Green Chile pipeline; without gas, campus stranded.",
      "water": "reported: Arid Santa Teresa; emergency well / construction water litigated; NM Supreme Court Sep 2026 allowed proceedings to resume.",
      "transformers": "estimate: On-site microgrid still needs switchgear/transformers; secondary to fuel+permit.",
      "who_exposed": [
        "Oracle OCI",
        "OpenAI as Stargate tenant",
        "STACK/Blue Owl landlord"
      ],
      "headline_risk": "HIGHEST desk score: force majeure + pipeline slip to ~2027-02 + air permit clock — single-point power failure mode."
    },
    {
      "region": "PNW",
      "label_zh": "太平洋西北",
      "risk_score_1to5": 3,
      "nature_score": "scenario",
      "interconnection_queue": "estimate: Less headline queue than PJM/ERCOT for net-new GW, but existing load share already high.",
      "generation_adequacy": "reported: Oregon DCs ~23% of state power (OPB/JPR 2026-09); hydro drought years stress winter/summer peaks.",
      "water": "reported: Columbia River / community water fights (Columbia Riverkeeper 2026 report).",
      "transformers": "estimate: National equipment shortage applies.",
      "who_exposed": [
        "AWS Oregon",
        "Google The Dalles"
      ],
      "headline_risk": "Hydro + water politics; not force-majeure theater but structural load-share stress."
    },
    {
      "region": "Southeast",
      "label_zh": "东南",
      "risk_score_1to5": 3,
      "nature_score": "scenario",
      "interconnection_queue": "estimate: Faster than NoVA for greenfield; utility-led (Entergy, Georgia Power) build-gen-with-load model.",
      "generation_adequacy": "reported: Entergy multi-GW gas for Hyperion; Georgia Power nuclear uprates with Google offtake; xAI on-site turbines.",
      "water": "estimate: Humid SE better than NM/West TX; still local permitting fights (xAI air).",
      "transformers": "estimate: National shortage; gas turbines also long-lead.",
      "who_exposed": [
        "Meta Hyperion",
        "xAI Colossus",
        "Microsoft Fairwater GA",
        "Google GA nuclear"
      ],
      "headline_risk": "Execution risk is generation permitting (gas/air) more than ISO queue; litigation on turbines (xAI)."
    },
    {
      "region": "Northern_VA",
      "label_zh": "北弗吉尼亚",
      "risk_score_1to5": 5,
      "nature_score": "scenario",
      "interconnection_queue": "reported: Dominion Loudoun large-load queue ~5–7 years; transmission 500 kV import capped; hyperscalers push west into Shenandoah.",
      "generation_adequacy": "estimate: Constrained until transmission ~2029–2032 narrative (Global Data Center Hub mid-2026).",
      "water": "estimate: Loudoun water/community pushback well documented historically.",
      "transformers": "reported: 230/34.5 kV hyperscale transformers 130–160 weeks — 'Data Center Alley' bottleneck essay 2026.",
      "who_exposed": [
        "Legacy AWS/Azure/GCP/Meta colo density",
        "CoreWeave Manassas",
        "DigitalOcean Richmond fringe"
      ],
      "headline_risk": "Highest structural grid+transformer jail; new AI GW largely fleeing to TX/LA/Midwest."
    },
    {
      "region": "Midwest",
      "label_zh": "中西部",
      "risk_score_1to5": 3,
      "nature_score": "scenario",
      "interconnection_queue": "estimate: Mixed MISO/PJM edge; SoftBank Piketon filing initial 800 MW with multi-GW gas self-build ambition.",
      "generation_adequacy": "estimate: Rainier proved large grid-served campus possible in IN; SoftBank 10 GW still mostly announced — generation must show up.",
      "water": "estimate: Generally better water access than Southwest; local politics vary (WI/OH).",
      "transformers": "estimate: Same national constraint; AEP transmission $4.2B narrative for Piketon.",
      "who_exposed": [
        "SoftBank/SB Energy",
        "AWS Rainier",
        "Microsoft Fairwater WI",
        "Meta Lebanon IN / OH",
        "Applied Digital"
      ],
      "headline_risk": "Soft numbers dominate (10 GW paper); medium near-term risk where grid already connected (Rainier/Fairwater)."
    }
  ],
  "operator_power_risk_ranking_desk": [
    {
      "rank": 1,
      "operator": "Oracle (Jupiter) / OpenAI-as-tenant there",
      "why": "Force majeure + single pipeline/fuel-cell permit path",
      "nature": "scenario"
    },
    {
      "rank": 2,
      "operator": "Anyone still scaling inside Northern VA queue",
      "why": "5–7y interconnection + transformer lead times",
      "nature": "scenario"
    },
    {
      "rank": 3,
      "operator": "Nebius (contracted 5 vs connected 0.8–1)",
      "why": "PJM adequacy + connected≠energized gap",
      "nature": "scenario"
    },
    {
      "rank": 4,
      "operator": "ERCOT BTM builders (MSFT Pecos, Crusoe/OpenAI Abilene, CW Denton)",
      "why": "SB6 curtailment + turbine/transformer; faster than PJM but not risk-free",
      "nature": "scenario"
    },
    {
      "rank": 5,
      "operator": "xAI Colossus",
      "why": "Fast energization but air/turbine litigation",
      "nature": "scenario"
    },
    {
      "rank": 6,
      "operator": "Meta Hyperion / SoftBank Piketon",
      "why": "Hyperion 5 GW story vs approved gas only 2.26 GW (2028-29) + pending 5.3 GW; nuclear PPAs are 2026–2035 grid hedges — high headline GW is mostly paper",
      "nature": "scenario",
      "meta_callout": true
    },
    {
      "rank": 7,
      "operator": "Google / AWS diversified footprints",
      "why": "Multi-region + nuclear PPAs; PNW hydro residual",
      "nature": "scenario"
    },
    {
      "rank": 8,
      "operator": "DigitalOcean / Cloudflare",
      "why": "Small or data_gap MW — absolute power risk low",
      "nature": "scenario"
    }
  ],
  "softest_numbers": [
    "Region rollup GW sums — announced pipelines overlapping landlords/tenants",
    "Risk scores 1–5 — pure desk scenario",
    "SoftBank 10 GW and Meta Hyperion 5 GW full build years",
    "OpenAI Stargate >9 GW program total",
    "xAI combined ~2 GW / 555k GPU Introl-style figures",
    "Nebius 5 GW contracted treated as geography-weighted PJM",
    "Northern VA 'new AI GW' residual ~1.5 — incomplete census"
  ],
  "sources_key": [
    "https://elpasomatters.org/2026/09/24/project-jupiter-rent-force-majeure-new-mexico-oracle-ai-el-paso-data-center/",
    "https://www.enr.com/articles/63720-oracle-invokes-force-majeure-as-new-mexico-project-jupiter-power-work-faces-hurdles",
    "https://www.siliconreport.com/biggest-ai-data-centers-us-ranked-power-8becb4fb",
    "https://www.ascendanalytics.com/blog/large-load-interconnection-queues-data-center-grid-access",
    "https://www.globaldatacenterhub.com/p/us-data-center-infrastructure-the",
    "https://www.emiratestransformer.com/us/en/blog/virginia-data-center-alley-hyperscaler-power/",
    "https://www.opb.org/article/2026/09/17/oregon-data-centers-consume-quarter-state-power-report/",
    "https://www.datacenterfrontier.com/machine-learning/article/55366132/softbanks-10-gw-ohio-campus-marks-a-turning-point-for-ai-infrastructure",
    "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/06/22/powering-the-next-wave-of-ai-expanding-capacity-with-our-new-datacenter-in-pecos/",
    "https://epoch.ai/data/ai-data-centers",
    "Prior desk: /workspace/invest-watch/inbox/us-ai-gw-by-operator-2026-09-29.json"
  ],
  "meta_deep_dive": {
    "as_of": "2026-09-29",
    "question_zh": "Meta 的 GW / 电力供给真的很充裕吗？",
    "one_line_zh": "追踪器里的「高 GW」主要是多年公告 nameplate + 购电承诺，不是已通电；Epoch 美国当前 AI IT 约 2.3 GW，明显低于 USDataMap ~13.7 GW 管线。",
    "verdict": "high_GW_is_mostly_paper_pipeline",
    "layers": [
      {
        "layer": "energized_current_IT",
        "gw": 2.27,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "source": "Epoch US covered AI DCs IT ~2026-09-28",
        "note_zh": "与 Google ~3.1 / AWS ~1.7 / Azure ~1.5 同口径；这是「现在有多少 AI IT」最近的公开样本。"
      },
      {
        "layer": "tracked_nameplate_pipeline",
        "gw": 13.69,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "source": "USDataMap Meta US tracked MW",
        "note_zh": "含在建+公告混加；不可当已通电。"
      },
      {
        "layer": "global_tracked_AIDC_index",
        "gw": 15.8,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "source": "aidatacenterindex operators",
        "note_zh": "全球追踪 nameplate，更「纸」。"
      },
      {
        "layer": "AMD_Instinct_commitment",
        "gw": 6,
        "nature": "reported_commitment",
        "source": "AMD 8-K Meta 2026-02",
        "note_zh": "多年芯片/机架承诺，首批约 1 GW H2'26 出货叙事 — 不是校园已装电力。"
      }
    ],
    "campuses": [
      {
        "name": "Hyperion",
        "location": "Richland Parish, LA",
        "region": "Southeast",
        "announced_path": "~2 GW by ~2030; potential ~5 GW ~2032 / $50B narrative",
        "status": "under_construction",
        "energized_now": "not_yet_hyperscale_GW — construction since 2025; phases through 2030",
        "nature_energized": "estimate",
        "power_plan": {
          "tranche1_gas_approved_GW": 2.26,
          "tranche1_online": "2 units ~2028; Waterford unit late 2029 (LPSC approved Aug 2025 class)",
          "tranche1_nature": "reported",
          "tranche2_gas_proposed_GW": 5.278,
          "tranche2_status": "pending LPSC U-37882; decision target ~2026-12-16 — NOT approved as of research cut",
          "tranche2_nature": "reported",
          "transmission": "Meta-funded substations + ~100-mile 500kV / ~240 miles narrative; Smalling substation groundbreaking",
          "gap_zh": "5 GW 算力野心跑在第二批气电审批前面（TECHi 叙事）；批准的 2.26 GW 气电要到 2028–29 才陆续并网。"
        },
        "sources": [
          "NOLA.com Hyperion expansion",
          "Entergy/Yahoo 2026-03-27",
          "DCD Entergy 2.26 GW approval",
          "TECHi Meta power plan gap",
          "LPSC U-37882"
        ]
      },
      {
        "name": "Prometheus",
        "location": "New Albany, OH (PJM)",
        "region": "Midwest/PJM",
        "announced_path": "~1 GW AI supercluster nameplate",
        "status": "partially_energized",
        "energized_IT_GW_range": [
          0.5,
          0.63
        ],
        "nature_energized": "estimate",
        "note_zh": "Epoch/BEP 约 496–631 MW IT；DEPLOY ~0.5 GW energized vs 1 GW announced。南区更像已带载；北区无人机显示壳体完成但未全载，现场气电（Socrates）分阶段。",
        "power_plan": {
          "on_site_gas": "Socrates South/North BTM gas plants supporting tent halls — reported/imagery",
          "grid": "PJM interconnection + regional grid",
          "nuclear_PPA": "Vistra/Oklo/TerraPower support regional grid that feeds Prometheus — NOT on-site reactors today",
          "interconnect_risk": "PJM capacity adequacy medium-high; nuclear PPA start late 2026 for operating MW, uprates into 2030s"
        },
        "sources": [
          "Epoch AI Meta Prometheus directory",
          "BEP tracker",
          "DEPLOY registry",
          "Synmax drone Aug 2026"
        ]
      },
      {
        "name": "Lebanon IN",
        "location": "Lebanon / LEAP district, IN",
        "region": "Midwest",
        "announced_path": "~1 GW / ~$10B / multi-building; first buildings ~YE2027 narrative",
        "status": "under_construction_early",
        "energized_now": "negligible_vs_nameplate",
        "nature_energized": "estimate",
        "power_plan": {
          "source": "Midwest utility / MISO-PJM edge — details less public than Hyperion Entergy package"
        },
        "sources": [
          "Redact.dev Meta DC list May 2026",
          "EdgeUno Americas boom"
        ]
      },
      {
        "name": "Eagle Mountain UT · El Paso TX · Beaver Dam WI · legacy US fleet",
        "location": "multi",
        "region": "multi",
        "announced_path": "hundreds of MW class each; contribute to Epoch ~2.3 GW US AI IT sample with Prometheus",
        "status": "mix_energized_and_UC",
        "nature_energized": "estimate",
        "sources": [
          "aidatacenterindex",
          "prior desk"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "power_contracts_not_campus_MW": [
      {
        "item": "Vistra PJM nuclear PPAs",
        "mw": 2609,
        "split": "2176 MW operating (Perry, Davis-Besse) + 433 MW uprates (Perry, Davis-Besse, Beaver Valley)",
        "delivery": "portion late 2026; full operating by YE2027; uprates ~2031–2034",
        "nature": "reported",
        "caveat_zh": "购电/容量协议，电入 PJM 电网再服务负载 — 不等于 New Albany 机房母线上多了 2.6 GW 专线。"
      },
      {
        "item": "Oklo Pike County OH Aurora",
        "mw_up_to": 1200,
        "delivery": "earliest ~2030 narrative",
        "nature": "reported_plan",
        "caveat_zh": "先进核电开发支持，2030 年代。"
      },
      {
        "item": "TerraPower Natrium",
        "mw_path": "up to ~2.8 GW baseload path (+ storage) across units; first units earliest ~2032",
        "nature": "reported_plan",
        "caveat_zh": "权利/支持协议，远非已发电。"
      },
      {
        "item": "Meta nuclear headline 'up to 6.6 GW by 2035'",
        "nature": "reported_statement",
        "caveat_zh": "新+存量核电相关承诺加总情景，含延寿与未来机组 — 书桌标 scenario 时间轴，勿与 2026 通电混谈。"
      },
      {
        "item": "Constellation prior nuclear (Clinton IL etc.)",
        "nature": "reported",
        "caveat_zh": "既有核电购电/延寿支持，网格级。"
      }
    ],
    "peer_compare_light": [
      {
        "operator": "Google",
        "epoch_US_IT_GW": 3.09,
        "tracked_US_GW_approx": 5.7,
        "power_note_zh": "当前通电样本领先；核电/公用事业 PPA 分散，少单点 5 GW 纸面校园。"
      },
      {
        "operator": "AWS",
        "epoch_US_IT_GW": 1.74,
        "tracked_US_GW_approx": 7.7,
        "power_note_zh": "Rainier IN ~2.2 GW 名牌已运营（电网）是少有的「大且已通」对照。"
      },
      {
        "operator": "Microsoft",
        "epoch_US_IT_GW": 1.5,
        "tracked_US_GW_approx": 9.0,
        "power_note_zh": "Fairwater 已有校园通电叙事；Pecos 2 GW+Chevron BTM 仍为公告阶段。"
      },
      {
        "operator": "Oracle/Jupiter",
        "epoch_US_IT_GW": 0.42,
        "tracked_highlight_GW": 2.45,
        "power_note_zh": "单点 force majeure — 纸面风险比 Meta Hyperion 更「急性」。"
      },
      {
        "operator": "xAI",
        "epoch_US_IT_GW": 1.3,
        "tracked_highlight_GW": 2.0,
        "power_note_zh": "Colossus 通电爬坡快，但气轮机许可争议；已通电/公告比 Meta Hyperion 更接近。"
      }
    ],
    "interconnection_delays": [
      {
        "item": "Hyperion Entergy gas tranche-2",
        "nature": "reported",
        "note_zh": "5.278 GW 气电+储能包待 LPSC，目标裁决约 2026-12；未批前 5 GW 校园缺完整电源时间表。"
      },
      {
        "item": "Hyperion gas tranche-1 COD",
        "nature": "reported",
        "note_zh": "已批 2.26 GW 要到 2028–29 — 与「现在高 GW」叙事错位 2–3 年。"
      },
      {
        "item": "Prometheus North energization",
        "nature": "estimate",
        "note_zh": "壳体完成≠带载；气电分阶段；PJM 队列不如 NoVA 极端，但仍受区域充裕度约束。"
      },
      {
        "item": "Nuclear PPA timing",
        "nature": "reported",
        "note_zh": "Vistra 运行机组购电 2026 末起；升功率与 Oklo/TerraPower 在 2030 年代 — 不解近两年 Hyperion 缺口。"
      },
      {
        "item": "National transformers",
        "nature": "reported",
        "note_zh": "LPT 130–160 周全国共性，Meta 自费变电站可抢位但仍受制造周期约束。"
      }
    ],
    "answer_zh_bullets": [
      "不是：USDataMap ~13.7 GW / Index ~15.8 GW / Hyperion 5 GW / 核电「至 6.6 GW」都不能读成「Meta 现在电力很充裕」。",
      "是（窄口径）：Epoch 美国已覆盖 AI IT ~2.3 GW，在超大规模里属第二梯队通电样本（次于 Google），说明 Meta 已有可观在运算力，但远小于管线标题。",
      "Hyperion：在建；电源上「已批 2.26 GW 气电（2028–29）」vs「拟议再 +5.3 GW（待批）」vs「算力故事 5 GW」三层错位 — 电力供给谈不上已充裕。",
      "Prometheus：约一半 nameplate 已通电（~0.5–0.6 GW IT estimate），现场气电+PJM；核电 PPA 是电网级对冲。",
      "相对同业：Meta 的「纸面/管线倍数」（追踪÷Epoch）高于 Google，接近 Azure/OpenAI 归因叙事；急性单点风险低于 Oracle Jupiter。",
      "AMD 6 GW 是芯片承诺，禁止计入电力充裕度。"
    ],
    "softest": [
      "USDataMap 13.7 与 AIDC 15.8 重叠定义不清",
      "Prometheus 0.50 vs 0.63 vs Epoch 0.496 不同抓取日",
      "Hyperion 「2 GW by 2030 / 5 GW by 2032」为公司/媒体路径非合同 COD",
      "核电 6.6 GW by 2035 加总",
      "peer tracked GW 粗对比"
    ]
  },
  "meta_power_delivery_timeline": {
    "as_of": "2026-09-29",
    "disclaimer_zh": "通电 MW 路径为公开报道+监管卷宗拼图 · 公司未发逐步 COD 表 · 标 scenario 处最软",
    "hyperion": {
      "location": "Richland Parish, LA (Rayville/Delhi / Holly Ridge)",
      "compute_path": [
        {
          "when": "construction_start",
          "note": "Groundbreaking ~Dec 2024; UC through phased build",
          "nature": "reported"
        },
        {
          "when": "~2030",
          "compute_GW": 2,
          "note": "Original ~2 GW campus path / operational target cited in local reporting",
          "nature": "estimate"
        },
        {
          "when": "~2032_or_meta_story",
          "compute_GW": 5,
          "note": "Jul 2026 Meta expansion narrative: potential 5 GW compute, >$50B regional investment",
          "nature": "reported_plan"
        }
      ],
      "entery_tranche1_U37425": {
        "status": "APPROVED",
        "docket": "LPSC U-37425",
        "nature": "reported",
        "total_GW": 2.26,
        "units": [
          {
            "name": "Franklin Farms / Richland Parish units (2)",
            "approx_MW": 1500,
            "COD": "2028",
            "nature": "reported"
          },
          {
            "name": "Waterford site CCCT (St. Charles Parish)",
            "approx_MW": 760,
            "COD": "late 2029",
            "nature": "estimate_split",
            "note": "Individual Waterford MW not always itemized; ~760 derived as 2260−1500"
          }
        ],
        "transmission": [
          {
            "item": "Smalling Substation (Richland)",
            "status": "under_construction_groundbroke_2025",
            "funder": "Meta",
            "nature": "reported"
          },
          {
            "item": "~100-mile 500kV / related TX package",
            "target": "Dec 2026 completion cited for $1.2B 100-mile project",
            "nature": "reported"
          }
        ],
        "desk_energize_implication_zh": "即使校园楼栋先竖起，与已批气电匹配的大规模通电更像 2028–29 爬坡；2026–27 若有早期 MW，多依赖既有电网/过渡电源（未单独披露）→ scenario。"
      },
      "entery_tranche2_U37882": {
        "status": "PENDING_OPEN",
        "docket": "LPSC U-37882 (Evest LLC / Project Evest / Meta Phase 2)",
        "opened": "2026-03-26",
        "commission_vote_target": "2026-12-16 Business and Executive Session",
        "nature": "reported",
        "package": {
          "gas_CCCT_plants": 7,
          "gas_MW": 5278,
          "transmission_miles_500kV_about": 240,
          "storage": "battery sites included in filing narrative",
          "nuclear_uprates": "mentioned in package description",
          "meta_funded_renewables_MW_up_to": 2500
        },
        "service_COD_if_approved": "Entergy investor materials cited ~2030–2031 for expansion units (estimate/secondary)",
        "nature_COD": "estimate",
        "not_approved_zh": "截至研究日仍为 open certification；Aug 2026 议程上有程序动议，≠最终认证。未批前不得把 +5.3 GW 气电当确定电源。"
      },
      "energize_scenario_table": [
        {
          "period": "2026H2–2027",
          "campus_MW_desk": "early/partial only if grid bridge — largely unknown",
          "power_side": "Smalling + 500kV work; tranche-1 plants still building",
          "nature": "scenario"
        },
        {
          "period": "2028",
          "campus_MW_desk": "first meaningful GW-class steps possible vs ~2 GW path",
          "power_side": "2× Richland gas units COD ~2028 (approved)",
          "nature": "estimate"
        },
        {
          "period": "2029",
          "campus_MW_desk": "further ramp toward ~2 GW path",
          "power_side": "Waterford unit late 2029 (approved)",
          "nature": "estimate"
        },
        {
          "period": "2030–2032",
          "campus_MW_desk": "path to ~2 GW then story toward ~5 GW",
          "power_side": "tranche-2 only if U-37882 approved; COD ~2030–31 narrative",
          "nature": "scenario"
        }
      ]
    },
    "other_meta_campuses": [
      {
        "name": "Prometheus New Albany OH",
        "target_GW": 1,
        "energized_IT_GW": "0.50–0.63",
        "nature_energized": "estimate",
        "power": "On-site Socrates gas + PJM; Vistra nuclear PPA supports regional grid (late 2026→)",
        "delay_notes": "North halls structurally complete ≠ fully loaded (drone Aug 2026)",
        "sources": [
          "Epoch",
          "BEP",
          "Synmax"
        ]
      },
      {
        "name": "El Paso TX",
        "target_GW": 1,
        "target_year": 2028,
        "investment_USD_bn": 10,
        "nature": "reported",
        "power": "El Paso Electric proposing ~366 MW McCloud gas (Enchanted Rock ~813 modular gens) as bridge colocated resource; Meta pays bridge 1–5 yrs then cost may roll to rates per PUCT filing narrative — contested optics",
        "nature_power": "reported",
        "renewables_match": "Meta: match 100% DC use with clean energy; TX clean projects >5 GW narrative",
        "sources": [
          "Meta datacenters.atmeta 2026-03-26",
          "CNBC",
          "El Paso Matters 2026-03-29"
        ]
      },
      {
        "name": "Lebanon IN",
        "target_GW": 1,
        "first_buildings": "~YE2027 narrative",
        "nature": "estimate",
        "power": "Midwest utility; less public than Entergy package",
        "sources": [
          "Redact.dev / EdgeUno"
        ]
      },
      {
        "name": "Beaver Dam WI",
        "power_MW_up_to": 220,
        "online": "~2027",
        "nature": "reported",
        "power": "Alliant Energy service contract; renewables match pledge",
        "sources": [
          "WisBusiness 2026-03"
        ]
      },
      {
        "name": "Eagle Mountain UT",
        "status": "mix_operational_expansion",
        "power_MW_tracker_range": "200–500 class (tracker variance)",
        "nature": "estimate",
        "sources": [
          "aidatacenterindex / trackers"
        ]
      },
      {
        "name": "Constellation Clinton IL nuclear PPA",
        "mw": 1100,
        "start": "Jun 2027 full offtake narrative",
        "nature": "reported",
        "note_zh": "购电延寿/全容量 offtake — 电网级，非单校园母线"
      }
    ]
  },
  "hyperscaler_power_strategy_compare": {
    "as_of": "2026-09-29",
    "scope": [
      "Google",
      "Amazon_AWS",
      "Microsoft_Azure"
    ],
    "dimensions": [
      "grid_queue_utility",
      "behind_the_meter_gas",
      "nuclear_PPA",
      "renewables_storage",
      "utility_partnership_build"
    ],
    "rows": [
      {
        "operator": "Google / GCP",
        "epoch_US_IT_GW": 3.09,
        "nature_epoch": "estimate",
        "primary_strategy_zh": "分散电网负载 + 可再生匹配 + 先进核电/重启研究；较少单点 BTM 气电巨兽叙事",
        "grid_queue_utility": {
          "weight": "high",
          "note_zh": "传统多州公用事业并网（IA/OK/OR/MN/GA 等）；北 VA 增量受限故外迁",
          "nature": "estimate"
        },
        "behind_the_meter_gas": {
          "weight": "low_medium",
          "note_zh": "不如 MSFT Pecos / xAI / Stargate 显眼；个案存在但非最新 2 GW 标题策略",
          "nature": "estimate"
        },
        "nuclear_PPA": {
          "weight": "medium_rising",
          "items": [
            "Kairos Power SMR orderbook: first ~2030, up to ~500 MW through ~2035 (reported)",
            "Georgia Power nuclear uprate offtake narrative 2026-09 (reported/press)",
            "NextEra Duane Arnold restart study ~601 MW (estimate/tracker)"
          ],
          "nature": "reported"
        },
        "renewables_storage": {
          "weight": "high",
          "note_zh": "长期企业可再生采购先锋；24/7 CFE 目标叙事",
          "nature": "reported"
        },
        "utility_partnership_build": {
          "weight": "medium",
          "note_zh": "与州公用事业合作扩核/输电，而非 Meta-Entergy 式整包气电认证为主",
          "nature": "estimate"
        },
        "key_US_sites": [
          "Council Bluffs IA",
          "Pryor Creek OK",
          "The Dalles OR",
          "Pine Island MN",
          "GA nuclear offtake"
        ],
        "known_delays": [
          "PNW hydro/drought + OR DC ~1/4 state power (reported 2026-09)",
          "NoVA transmission if eastward",
          "SMR Kairos 2030+ not near-term MW"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "Epoch",
          "Google Kairos blog",
          "AJC Georgia Power",
          "OPB Oregon DC"
        ]
      },
      {
        "operator": "Amazon / AWS",
        "epoch_US_IT_GW": 1.74,
        "nature_epoch": "estimate",
        "primary_strategy_zh": "历史上「有余量就并网 + 可再生匹配」；近年叠加核电 PPA + 公用事业侧新建气电服务负载（德州等）",
        "grid_queue_utility": {
          "weight": "high",
          "note_zh": "Rainier IN 是大电网校园范例（已通）；VA/OH/OR 成熟区；新州扩张管线大",
          "nature": "estimate"
        },
        "behind_the_meter_gas": {
          "weight": "medium_rising",
          "note_zh": "次级汇编称公用事业/IPP 为 Amazon 负载规划多 GW 气电（含西德大电站叙事）— 多为 utility-fronted 而非校园自持 BTM",
          "nature": "estimate"
        },
        "nuclear_PPA": {
          "weight": "high",
          "items": [
            "Talen Susquehanna PPA expanded up to ~1,920 MW through 2042 (reported)",
            "Comanche Peak TX nuclear offtake tracker ~1.2 GW class (estimate/tracker)",
            "X-Energy SMR development commitments (2030+)"
          ],
          "nature": "reported"
        },
        "renewables_storage": {
          "weight": "high",
          "note_zh": "公开称美国碳自由电合同规模领先叙事（太阳能+风电数十 GW 级合同汇编）",
          "nature": "estimate"
        },
        "utility_partnership_build": {
          "weight": "high",
          "note_zh": "新市场与公用事业签约扩容；PA Cumulus 等与核电站毗邻",
          "nature": "estimate"
        },
        "key_US_sites": [
          "Project Rainier New Carlisle IN (energized)",
          "US-West OR",
          "OH us-east-2",
          "PA Susquehanna/Cumulus",
          "TX expansion pipeline",
          "VA planned Mattameade"
        ],
        "known_delays": [
          "NoVA/Dominion queue for leftover growth",
          "TX large-load SB6 curtailment exposure",
          "SMR 2030+"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "CNBC Rainier",
          "Talen/Amazon PPA coverage",
          "Distilled.Earth Amazon power",
          "aidatacenterindex"
        ]
      },
      {
        "operator": "Microsoft Azure",
        "epoch_US_IT_GW": 1.5,
        "nature_epoch": "estimate",
        "primary_strategy_zh": "双轨：已建校园走公用事业并网（Fairwater）；新巨型用 BTM 气电跳过队列（Pecos+Chevron）；核电重启 PPA（Crane/TMI）",
        "grid_queue_utility": {
          "weight": "medium",
          "note_zh": "Fairwater WI / Atlanta GA 依赖公用事业；威州第二座同类承诺",
          "nature": "reported"
        },
        "behind_the_meter_gas": {
          "weight": "high_new",
          "items": [
            "Pecos TX ~2 GW campus + Chevron up to ~2.67 GW BTM gas (announced Jun 2026) — turbines not yet online"
          ],
          "nature": "reported"
        },
        "nuclear_PPA": {
          "weight": "high",
          "items": [
            "Constellation Crane Clean Energy Center (TMI-1 restart) ~835 MW, first power target 2027 (reported)",
            "Helion fusion contingent ~50 MW stated 2028 (reported_statement / soft)"
          ],
          "nature": "reported"
        },
        "renewables_storage": {
          "weight": "high",
          "note_zh": "长期可再生采购与碳负目标叙事并行",
          "nature": "reported"
        },
        "utility_partnership_build": {
          "weight": "medium_high",
          "note_zh": "Fairwater 与地方公用事业；Pecos 则是能源公司 BTM 合资色彩",
          "nature": "estimate"
        },
        "key_US_sites": [
          "Fairwater Mount Pleasant WI",
          "Fairwater Atlanta GA",
          "Pecos TX (announced)",
          "PA Crane nuclear offtake"
        ],
        "known_delays": [
          "Pecos multi-year 5–7y build; gas turbines lead time",
          "Crane restart execution to 2027",
          "MISO/WI interconnection for further WI GW"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "Microsoft Pecos blog 2026-06-22",
          "Microsoft Fairwater WI blog",
          "Constellation/DOE Crane loan coverage",
          "SiliconReport"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "one_glance_matrix": [
      {
        "lever": "电网队列/公用事业并网",
        "Google": "●●● 主",
        "AWS": "●●● 主",
        "Azure": "●● Fairwater",
        "nature": "scenario"
      },
      {
        "lever": "BTM / 场站气电",
        "Google": "● 少",
        "AWS": "●● 升（多经公用事业）",
        "Azure": "●●● Pecos",
        "nature": "scenario"
      },
      {
        "lever": "核电 PPA / 重启 / SMR",
        "Google": "●● Kairos/GA",
        "AWS": "●●● Susquehanna等",
        "Azure": "●●● Crane 2027",
        "nature": "scenario"
      },
      {
        "lever": "可再生+储能匹配",
        "Google": "●●●",
        "AWS": "●●●",
        "Azure": "●●●",
        "nature": "scenario"
      },
      {
        "lever": "公用事业「建机伴载」整包",
        "Google": "●●",
        "AWS": "●●●",
        "Azure": "●●",
        "Meta_ref": "●●● Entergy",
        "nature": "scenario"
      }
    ],
    "softest": [
      "策略权重 ● 评分为书桌 scenario",
      "Amazon 气电 17.5 GW / 44 GW DC 等次级汇编总量",
      "Pecos COD 细表未公开",
      "Kairos/X-Energy/Helion 时间"
    ]
  }
}