{
  "meta": {
    "title": "US/Global AI infra supply stack: chips · HBM · storage · optics · power",
    "as_of": "2026-09-29",
    "timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong",
    "audience": "GUCCI via 小智 study desk",
    "disclaimer_zh": "非官方汇编 · reported|estimate|scenario 分层 · 季度数字多为最软层 · 禁止当作精确账本。",
    "definitions": {
      "IT_critical_load_GW": "IT/critical load — power to IT equipment (chips/servers), not full facility draw",
      "facility_power_GW": "Facility power ≈ IT × PUE (typically +20–50% for cooling/overhead)",
      "energized_active": "Power currently online and usable",
      "contracted": "Contracted/secured power not yet fully energized",
      "tracked_nameplate": "Sum of disclosed/announced campus nameplates in a tracker (ops + construction + planned mixed)",
      "US_vs_global": "Geography tag on each figure; chip-supply GW often global"
    },
    "coverage_notes": [
      "Epoch AI covers large AI DCs only; ~44% of global deployed AI compute as of 2026-09-29 (90% CI wide).",
      "Goldman / Aterio / SemiAnalysis often cover ALL US datacenters, not AI-only.",
      "USDataMap / AI Data Center Index mix operational + pipeline; not audited market share.",
      "Operator self-build vs leased colocation can double-count if summed naively across landlord + tenant."
    ],
    "expanded_scope": [
      "chips_gpu_cowos",
      "hbm_memory",
      "storage_nand_hdd",
      "optical_modules",
      "power_us_energizable"
    ],
    "exercise_type": "supply_side_scenario_desk",
    "extended_operator_note": "Cloudflare=data_gap on MW; SpaceX AI segment ≠ launch CapEx; Nebius contracted 5GW ≠ connected 0.8–1GW"
  },
  "us_totals": [
    {
      "metric": "Epoch covered AI DCs — US IT power (current)",
      "gw": 11.85,
      "nature": "estimate",
      "scope": "US",
      "load_type": "IT",
      "as_of": "2026-09-28/29",
      "note": "77 US sites in Epoch CSV; partial coverage of all AI compute",
      "source": "Epoch AI data_centers.csv",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/data/ai-data-centers"
    },
    {
      "metric": "Epoch covered AI DCs — global IT power (current)",
      "gw": 13.5,
      "nature": "estimate",
      "scope": "global",
      "load_type": "IT",
      "as_of": "2026-09-28/29",
      "note": "93 sites; facility power ~17.6 GW (+20–50%)",
      "source": "Epoch AI",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/data/ai-data-centers"
    },
    {
      "metric": "AI Data Center Index — US selected tracked capacity",
      "gw": 43.6,
      "nature": "estimate",
      "scope": "US",
      "load_type": "tracked_nameplate_mixed",
      "as_of": "2026-06-18 dataset refresh cited on page",
      "note": "84 facilities; 54% of facilities operational — NOT 54% of MW; includes pipeline",
      "source": "aidatacenterindex.com US country report",
      "url": "https://aidatacenterindex.com/reports/country/united-states/"
    },
    {
      "metric": "Goldman Sachs — US DC power demand",
      "series": {
        "2025": 31,
        "2026": 41,
        "2027": 66
      },
      "nature": "estimate",
      "scope": "US",
      "load_type": "demand_at_70pct_util",
      "as_of": "2026-05-20 article",
      "note": "ALL datacenters not AI-only; capacity ~95 GW EOY2027 assumed; Aterio schedules + delay haircut",
      "source": "Goldman Sachs Commodities Research via goldmansachs.com",
      "url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/us-data-center-power-demand-projected-to-double-by-2027"
    },
    {
      "metric": "Goldman/Aterio — US DC capacity additions (scheduled vs delay-adjusted)",
      "scheduled_gw": {
        "2024_realized": 6.4,
        "2025_realized": 8.5,
        "2026_scheduled": 13.6,
        "2027_scheduled": 36.3
      },
      "delay_adjusted_notes": "Q1'26 realized 2.2 GW; final 3Q of 2026 ~11.5 GW after haircut; ~60% next-year / ~50% two-year on-time",
      "nature": "estimate",
      "scope": "US",
      "load_type": "facility_capacity_additions_all_DC",
      "source": "Goldman Sachs / Aterio",
      "url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/us-data-center-power-demand-projected-to-double-by-2027"
    },
    {
      "metric": "SemiAnalysis — US datacenter IT capacity delivered",
      "additions_gw": {
        "2026": 21,
        "2027": 38
      },
      "nature": "estimate",
      "scope": "US",
      "load_type": "IT",
      "note": "2027: ~22 GW under vertical construction + ~16 GW planned/financed; NOT AI-only fraction disclosed in free notes",
      "source": "SemiAnalysis newsletters (grid constraints / moratoriums / cancelation rebuttal)",
      "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/everyone-says-datacenter-moratoriums"
    },
    {
      "metric": "Grid Strategies — DC growth through 2030 (benchmark vs utility forecasts)",
      "gw_through_2030_about": 65,
      "nature": "estimate",
      "scope": "US",
      "note": "Utility/FERC aggregates overstate DC load ~40%; AI not separately tracked in utility forecasts",
      "source": "Grid Strategies National Load Growth Report 2025",
      "url": "https://gridstrategiesllc.com/wp-content/uploads/Grid-Strategies-National-Load-Growth-Report-2025.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "operators": [
    {
      "operator": "Google / GCP",
      "us_current_IT_GW_epoch": 3.09,
      "nature_current": "estimate",
      "us_tracked_MW_usdatamap": 5680,
      "nature_tracked": "estimate",
      "global_tracked_GW_aidc_index": 9.0,
      "notes": "Epoch US lead on covered AI IT as of ~2026-09; includes TPU campuses. Tracked MW mixes pipeline.",
      "sources": [
        "Epoch AI CSV 2026-09-28",
        "usdatamap.com 2026-09-29",
        "aidatacenterindex operators"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Meta",
      "us_current_IT_GW_epoch": 2.27,
      "nature_current": "estimate",
      "us_tracked_MW_usdatamap": 13690,
      "nature_tracked": "estimate",
      "global_tracked_GW_aidc_index": 15.8,
      "planned_highlights": [
        {
          "item": "Hyperion LA",
          "gw": 5,
          "nature": "reported_plan",
          "note": "Meta/CNBC: ~2 GW by ~2030, full ~5 GW ~2032 — NOT current"
        },
        {
          "item": "AMD Instinct multi-year",
          "gw": 6,
          "nature": "reported_commitment",
          "note": "First ~1 GW shipments H2 2026; remainder multi-year to ~2030"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        "Epoch",
        "usdatamap",
        "CNBC 2026-07-13 Hyperion",
        "AMD 8-K Meta 2026-02"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Amazon / AWS",
      "us_current_IT_GW_epoch": 1.74,
      "nature_current": "estimate",
      "us_tracked_MW_usdatamap": 7660,
      "nature_tracked": "estimate",
      "global_tracked_GW_aidc_index": 14.1,
      "notes": "Epoch large sites include Anthropic-Amazon New Carlisle ~910 MW IT. Trainium mixes with NVIDIA.",
      "sources": [
        "Epoch",
        "usdatamap",
        "aidatacenterindex"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Microsoft / Azure",
      "us_current_IT_GW_epoch": 1.52,
      "nature_current": "estimate",
      "us_tracked_MW_usdatamap": 8950,
      "nature_tracked": "estimate",
      "global_tracked_GW_aidc_index": 13.1,
      "planned_highlights": [
        {
          "item": "Fairwater Atlanta",
          "gw_IT_current_epoch": 0.636,
          "nature": "estimate"
        },
        {
          "item": "Fairwater Wisconsin",
          "gw_IT_current_epoch": 0.369,
          "nature": "estimate",
          "note": "Campus scale-up multi-GW over years; index cites ~3.3 GW nameplate scenario — not all energized"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        "Epoch",
        "usdatamap",
        "aidatacenterindex Fairwater WI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "xAI / SpaceXAI",
      "us_current_IT_GW_epoch": 1.3,
      "nature_current": "estimate",
      "us_tracked_MW_usdatamap": 2950,
      "nature_tracked": "estimate",
      "notes": "Colossus 2 Memphis ~946 MW IT (Epoch); SpaceX S-1 referenced in Epoch sources",
      "sources": [
        "Epoch",
        "usdatamap"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "CoreWeave",
      "us_current_IT_GW_epoch_partial": 0.64,
      "active_power_GW_company_Q2_2026": 1.5,
      "nature_active": "reported",
      "ye2026_active_guidance_GW": ">1.85",
      "nature_guidance": "reported",
      "contracted_power_GW": 4.2,
      "nature_contracted": "reported",
      "extra_options_GW_about": 1.5,
      "us_tracked_MW_usdatamap": 2110,
      "notes": "Company active/contracted are best hard numbers; >1 GW contracted outside US (incl. Indonesia). Epoch covers subset of sites.",
      "sources": [
        "CRWV Q2 2026 earnings call",
        "usdatamap",
        "Epoch"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Oracle / OCI (+ Stargate tenants)",
      "us_current_IT_GW_epoch": 0.42,
      "nature_current": "estimate",
      "us_tracked_MW_usdatamap": 4290,
      "nature_tracked": "estimate",
      "global_tracked_GW_aidc_index": 8.1,
      "planned_highlights": [
        {
          "item": "Stargate Abilene campus",
          "planned_campus_GW": 1.2,
          "energized_early_MW_reported": "~200+",
          "nature": "reported_partial",
          "note": "Crusoe/Oracle/OpenAI; expansion plans revised in press"
        },
        {
          "item": "Oracle–OpenAI broader agreement cited in press",
          "gw_about": 4.5,
          "nature": "reported_commitment_press",
          "note": "Multi-site; not all energized"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        "Epoch",
        "usdatamap",
        "DCD / MarketScreener Abilene coverage"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "OpenAI (tenant / Stargate attribution)",
      "us_tracked_MW_usdatamap": 12200,
      "nature_tracked": "estimate",
      "global_tracked_GW_aidc_index": 7.1,
      "notes": "Often tenant of Microsoft/Oracle/others — do NOT add to landlord GW. AMD 6 GW multi-year commitment (first 1 GW H2 2026 shipments).",
      "sources": [
        "usdatamap",
        "aidatacenterindex",
        "AMD–OpenAI PR 2025-10"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "amd_multiyear_commitments_not_current_installed": [
    {
      "parties": "AMD–OpenAI",
      "gw": 6,
      "nature": "reported_commitment",
      "first_tranche": "1 GW MI450-class starting H2 2026 shipments",
      "geography": "not specified as US-only in press — treat as global commitment unless proven US",
      "url": "https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1260/amd-and-openai-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-6-gigawatts-of-amd-gpus"
    },
    {
      "parties": "AMD–Meta",
      "gw": 6,
      "nature": "reported_commitment",
      "first_tranche": "1 GW custom MI450/Helios starting H2 2026; 5-year multi-generation",
      "geography": "Meta US-heavy buildout but GW is chip/rack commitment not a single US campus",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000045/pressreleasedatedfebruary2.htm"
    },
    {
      "parties": "AMD–Anthropic",
      "gw_up_to": 2,
      "nature": "reported_commitment",
      "first_tranche": "first ~1 GW starting H1 2027 (press)",
      "note": "Do not treat as 2026Q4 installed"
    }
  ],
  "quarterly_deliverable_GW": {
    "caveat_zh": "季度可交付/通电 GW 是最软一层：不同来源口径（AI-only vs 全 DC、IT vs facility、覆盖不全）不可直接相加。",
    "epochs_covered_US_AI_IT_cumulative_GW": {
      "nature": "estimate",
      "scope": "US",
      "load_type": "IT",
      "coverage": "Epoch large-AI-site sample only (incomplete)",
      "points": [
        {
          "quarter": "2026Q3",
          "cumulative_GW": 11.88,
          "delta_GW": 1.25
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2026Q4",
          "cumulative_GW": 14.12,
          "delta_GW": 2.25
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q1",
          "cumulative_GW": 16.38,
          "delta_GW": 2.26
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q2",
          "cumulative_GW": 17.24,
          "delta_GW": 0.86
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q3",
          "cumulative_GW": 18.42,
          "delta_GW": 1.18
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q4",
          "cumulative_GW": 20.75,
          "delta_GW": 2.33
        }
      ],
      "source": "Epoch data_center_timelines.csv last-obs-per-site rollup",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/data/ai-data-centers"
    },
    "epochs_owner_cumulative_US_IT_GW": {
      "nature": "estimate",
      "note": "Same partial coverage; colocator sites without hyperscaler owner in join excluded from owner columns",
      "table": [
        {
          "quarter": "2026Q3",
          "Google": 3.09,
          "Meta": 2.27,
          "Amazon": 1.74,
          "Microsoft": 1.52,
          "SpaceXAI": 1.3,
          "CoreWeave": 0.64,
          "Oracle": 0.42
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2026Q4",
          "Google": 3.53,
          "Meta": 2.65,
          "Amazon": 1.87,
          "Microsoft": 1.52,
          "SpaceXAI": 1.3,
          "CoreWeave": 0.73,
          "Oracle": 0.84
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q1",
          "Google": 3.89,
          "Meta": 3.06,
          "Amazon": 1.93,
          "Microsoft": 1.89,
          "SpaceXAI": 1.89,
          "CoreWeave": 0.73,
          "Oracle": 0.84
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q2",
          "Google": 4.12,
          "Meta": 3.2,
          "Amazon": 1.93,
          "Microsoft": 1.89,
          "SpaceXAI": 1.89,
          "CoreWeave": 1.18,
          "Oracle": 0.84
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q3",
          "Google": 4.38,
          "Meta": 3.37,
          "Amazon": 2.11,
          "Microsoft": 2.22,
          "SpaceXAI": 1.89,
          "CoreWeave": 1.18,
          "Oracle": 0.98
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q4",
          "Google": 5.32,
          "Meta": 3.37,
          "Amazon": 2.11,
          "Microsoft": 2.56,
          "SpaceXAI": 1.89,
          "CoreWeave": 1.26,
          "Oracle": 1.26
        }
      ]
    },
    "semianalysis_US_IT_annual_then_quarterly_scenario": {
      "nature": "scenario",
      "scope": "US",
      "load_type": "IT_all_DC",
      "annual_additions_GW": {
        "2026": 21,
        "2027": 38
      },
      "soft_quarterly_split_GW": [
        {
          "quarter": "2026Q4",
          "mid_GW": 6.0,
          "range_GW": [
            5.0,
            7.5
          ],
          "note": "Residual of ~21 GW year after strong H1/H2 already delivered; NOT Epoch-only"
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q1",
          "mid_GW": 8.0,
          "range_GW": [
            7.0,
            9.5
          ]
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q2",
          "mid_GW": 9.0,
          "range_GW": [
            8.0,
            10.5
          ]
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q3",
          "mid_GW": 10.0,
          "range_GW": [
            8.5,
            11.5
          ]
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q4",
          "mid_GW": 11.0,
          "range_GW": [
            9.0,
            13.0
          ]
        }
      ],
      "sum_check_2027_mid": 38,
      "flag": "SOFTEST — desk even-split/back-loaded scenario on SemiAnalysis annual, not company guidance"
    },
    "goldman_US_all_DC_capacity_additions": {
      "nature": "estimate",
      "scope": "US",
      "load_type": "facility_capacity_all_DC",
      "points": [
        {
          "quarter": "2026Q1",
          "gw": 2.2,
          "nature": "estimate",
          "note": "realized per GS article"
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2026Q2_Q4_combined",
          "gw": 11.5,
          "nature": "estimate",
          "note": "delay-adjusted; implies ~3.8 GW/q average"
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2026Q4_desk_slice",
          "gw_mid": 3.8,
          "range_GW": [
            3.0,
            4.5
          ],
          "nature": "scenario",
          "flag": "SOFTEST even split of 11.5 across 3Q"
        },
        {
          "year": "2027",
          "scheduled_GW": 36.3,
          "delay_adjusted_about_GW": 18,
          "nature": "estimate",
          "note": "~50% on-time haircut implied by GS two-year view; quarterly ~4–5 GW mid if flat"
        }
      ],
      "source": "Goldman Sachs May 2026"
    },
    "supply_side_global_chip_TDP": {
      "nature": "estimate",
      "scope": "global",
      "metric": "Implied chip TDP demand ~2027 (not energized US DC capacity)",
      "total_GW_about": 38,
      "split_GW_about": {
        "NVIDIA": 16,
        "Google_TPU": 9,
        "AMD": 7,
        "AWS_Trainium": 2,
        "others_MSFT_Meta_etc": 4
      },
      "notes": [
        "Morgan Stanley stress-test framing (~19M accelerators × ~2 kW) — GLOBAL supply, not US energization",
        "Rubin ramp: chip volume from ~2026Q3, rack shipments cited from ~2026Q4 (press summaries)",
        "AMD Helios/MI450: production shipments late 2026Q3, significant step-up 2026Q4, another step-up 2027Q1 (AMD earnings commentary)",
        "Who absorbs: NV → Azure/AWS/GCP/Meta/Oracle/CoreWeave/neoclouds; AMD → OpenAI/Meta/Anthropic/Azure/OCI first"
      ],
      "source": "Morgan Stanley summaries via secondary press; AMD earnings; NVIDIA roadmap press"
    },
    "coreweave_company_path": {
      "nature": "reported",
      "scope": "mostly_US_but_not_US_only",
      "points": [
        {
          "as_of": "2026Q2",
          "active_GW": 1.5
        },
        {
          "as_of": "2026YE_guidance",
          "active_GW": ">1.85"
        },
        {
          "contracted_GW": 4.2,
          "options_about_GW": 1.5,
          "2030_active_target_GW": ">=8"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "ranking_who_has_more_soft": {
    "lens_A_energized_AI_IT_US_Epoch_partial_2026Q3": {
      "nature": "estimate",
      "order": [
        "Google ~3.1",
        "Meta ~2.3",
        "AWS ~1.7",
        "Azure ~1.5",
        "xAI ~1.3",
        "CoreWeave ~0.6 (Epoch) / 1.5 company active",
        "Oracle ~0.4"
      ],
      "verdict_zh": "在 Epoch 已覆盖的美国大型 AI 机房「当前 IT 功率」口径下，Google 略高于 Meta，再往下是 AWS、Azure、xAI；CoreWeave 公司口径活跃功率高于 Epoch 样本。"
    },
    "lens_B_tracked_nameplate_pipeline_USDataMap": {
      "nature": "estimate",
      "order": [
        "Meta 13.7",
        "OpenAI 12.2 (tenant risk)",
        "Azure 9.0",
        "AWS 7.7",
        "Google 5.7",
        "Oracle 4.3",
        "xAI 3.0",
        "CoreWeave 2.1"
      ],
      "verdict_zh": "若把公告/在建 nameplate 加总，Meta 与 OpenAI 归因最高，但 OpenAI 多为租户、且含多年未通电产能——不能当「现在谁有电」。"
    }
  },
  "softest_numbers": [
    "Any precise single-digit GW ranking claiming exact market share today",
    "SemiAnalysis annual → desk quarterly split (scenario)",
    "Goldman 11.5 GW over 3Q → per-quarter even slice",
    "Morgan Stanley 38 GW chip TDP 2027 as if it were US energized capacity",
    "AI Data Center Index 43.6 GW as if operational",
    "Adding landlord + tenant (OpenAI + Oracle + Microsoft) without de-duplication",
    "Treating AMD 6+6 GW as 2026 installed US capacity"
  ],
  "chart_files": [
    "/workspace/invest-watch/inbox/charts/us_ai_gw_by_operator_2026-09-29.png",
    "/workspace/invest-watch/inbox/charts/us_ai_gw_quarterly_delivery_2026q4_2027.png"
  ],
  "fact_sheet_md": "/workspace/invest-watch/inbox/us-ai-gw-by-operator-2026-09-29.md",
  "pillar_chips": {
    "label_zh": "芯片/GPU与先进封装 CoWoS",
    "geography_default": "global_supply",
    "current_and_forward": [
      {
        "metric": "Epoch covered AI DCs — global IT power (proxy for deployed chip power)",
        "gw": 13.5,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global",
        "as_of": "2026-09-28",
        "source": "Epoch AI",
        "url": "https://epoch.ai/data/ai-data-centers"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Morgan Stanley implied 2027 accelerator chip TDP demand",
        "total_GW_about": 38,
        "split_GW_about": {
          "NVIDIA": 16,
          "Google_TPU": 9,
          "AMD": 7,
          "AWS_Trainium": 2,
          "others": 4
        },
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global",
        "note": "Stress-test (~19M accelerators × ~2kW TDP) — NOT US energized facility power",
        "source": "Morgan Stanley via secondary press"
      },
      {
        "metric": "UBS 2027 NVIDIA AI GPU production estimate",
        "units_million_about": 8.8,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global",
        "note": "Raised from 8.2M; includes Rubin + ~200k Rubin CPX",
        "source": "UBS Global IO Sep 2026 summaries"
      },
      {
        "metric": "MS / press — Rubin + Rubin Ultra combined shipments ~2027",
        "units_million_about": 7.0,
        "detail": {
          "Rubin_about": 5.92,
          "Rubin_Ultra_about": 1.04
        },
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global",
        "ramp_note": "Rubin chip ramp ~2026Q3; rack shipments cited ~2026Q4"
      },
      {
        "metric": "AMD Helios / MI450 production shipments",
        "nature": "reported_guidance",
        "scope": "global",
        "timeline": [
          {
            "quarter": "2026Q3",
            "note": "production shipments begin late Q3 (AMD commentary)"
          },
          {
            "quarter": "2026Q4",
            "note": "very significant step-up"
          },
          {
            "quarter": "2027Q1",
            "note": "another step-up; ramp through 2027"
          }
        ],
        "commitments_GW_multiyear": [
          {
            "who": "OpenAI",
            "gw": 6,
            "first_1GW": "H2 2026"
          },
          {
            "who": "Meta",
            "gw": 6,
            "first_1GW": "H2 2026"
          },
          {
            "who": "Anthropic",
            "gw_up_to": 2,
            "first_1GW": "H1 2027"
          }
        ],
        "flag": "6+6 GW are multi-year commitments NOT current installed"
      },
      {
        "metric": "TSMC in-house CoWoS capacity (year-end kwpm)",
        "series": [
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "kwpm_about": "140–160",
            "nature": "estimate",
            "sources": [
              "Mizuho ~140k",
              "chain consensus rising toward 160k"
            ]
          },
          {
            "year": 2027,
            "kwpm_about": "190–200",
            "nature": "estimate",
            "sources": [
              "TSMC/bank consensus"
            ]
          }
        ],
        "global_industry_kwpm_2027_about": "210–280",
        "ubs_global_ye2027_kwpm": 270,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global"
      },
      {
        "metric": "CoWoS annual wafer demand 2027 (bank estimates)",
        "total_wafers_k_about": 2690,
        "nvidia_k_about": 1200,
        "amd_k_range": [
          355,
          540
        ],
        "yoy_growth_pct_about": 93,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global",
        "note": "AMD surge driven by MI450/MI455 + Venice CPU first CoWoS; NV share % falls while absolute rises",
        "source": "Morgan Stanley / JPMorgan / UBS summaries"
      }
    ],
    "quarterly_soft_scenario_chip_GW_equivalent": {
      "nature": "scenario",
      "scope": "global",
      "flag": "SOFTEST — desk mapping of annual chip-TDP / shipment narratives into quarters; NOT energization",
      "points": [
        {
          "quarter": "2026Q4",
          "nv_blackwell_rubin_mid_GW": 3.5,
          "range": [
            2.5,
            4.5
          ],
          "amd_mi450_mid_GW": 0.4,
          "range_amd": [
            0.2,
            0.7
          ],
          "note": "Blackwell digest + early Rubin racks; AMD first Helios volume"
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q1",
          "nv_mid_GW": 3.8,
          "amd_mid_GW": 0.6,
          "note": "Rubin ramp + AMD Q1 step-up"
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q2",
          "nv_mid_GW": 4.0,
          "amd_mid_GW": 0.8
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q3",
          "nv_mid_GW": 4.2,
          "amd_mid_GW": 1.0,
          "note": "Rubin Ultra early / HBM4 denser mixes"
        },
        {
          "quarter": "2027Q4",
          "nv_mid_GW": 4.5,
          "amd_mid_GW": 1.2
        }
      ],
      "sum_nv_2027_mid_about": 16.5,
      "sum_amd_2027_mid_about": 3.6,
      "calibration": "Roughly aligned to MS ~16 GW NV / ~7 GW AMD full-year 2027 TDP stress-test — AMD desk mid under-shoots bank 7 GW (flag as incomplete absorption / multi-year commit lag)"
    },
    "who_absorbs": "NV → Azure/AWS/GCP/Meta/Oracle/CoreWeave/neoclouds; AMD → OpenAI/Meta/Anthropic/Azure/OCI; Google/AWS ASICs self-absorb"
  },
  "pillar_hbm": {
    "label_zh": "HBM 高带宽内存",
    "geography_default": "global_supply",
    "current_and_forward": [
      {
        "metric": "HBM share of top-3 DRAM wafer input",
        "series": {
          "EOY2025": "≈18%",
          "EOY2026": "≈22%",
          "EOY2027": "≈30%"
        },
        "bit_share_of_DRAM_about": {
          "EOY2026": "≈9%",
          "EOY2027": "≈13%"
        },
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global",
        "source": "TrendForce via secondary summaries"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Supplier HBM wafer capacity (wafers/month, industry press)",
        "SK_hynix_kwpm_about": "150–200",
        "Samsung_kwpm_about": "150–200",
        "Micron_current_kwpm_about": "40–50 (2025)",
        "Micron_ye2026_target_kwpm_about": 100,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global",
        "note": "ETNews/TrendForce secondary; Samsung ~half of ~150k to HBM4 mid-2026 press",
        "as_of": "2026-09"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Market share narrative 2026",
        "leader": "SK hynix (H1 2026 leadership)",
        "Samsung_ye2026_target_share_about": "≈38%",
        "nature": "estimate",
        "source": "TrendForce summaries"
      },
      {
        "metric": "MS AI HBM demand 2027",
        "billion_Gb_about": 48.6,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global",
        "note": "Paired with CoWoS demand ~2.66–2.69M wafers in same MS framing"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Pricing / contract regime",
        "nature": "estimate",
        "note": "2026 pricing pause / ASP soft vs spot DRAM; 2027 HBM4 contracts expected to reprice sharply upward (TrendForce)"
      }
    ],
    "bottleneck_role": "Still binding for densest racks (HBM4 for Helios/Rubin); crowd-out of commodity DRAM is the side effect"
  },
  "pillar_storage": {
    "label_zh": "存储 NAND / 企业级 SSD / 近线 HDD",
    "geography_default": "global_supply",
    "current_and_forward": [
      {
        "metric": "Data-center enterprise SSD shipment capacity 2026",
        "EB_about": 525,
        "alt_MS_May_EB": 509,
        "yoy_pct_about": "≈+94–100%",
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global",
        "source": "Morgan Stanley / TSR via secondary"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Data-center nearline HDD shipment capacity 2026",
        "EB_about": 1845,
        "yoy_pct_about": "≈+30%",
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global"
      },
      {
        "metric": "AI-related NAND demand",
        "series_EB": {
          "2025": 205,
          "2026": 400,
          "2027": 609
        },
        "share_of_NAND_pct_about": {
          "2025": 18,
          "2026": 32,
          "2027": 41
        },
        "cagr_about": "≈60% YoY",
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global",
        "source": "Morgan Stanley Jul 2026 NAND note summaries"
      },
      {
        "metric": "June 2026 DC enterprise SSD monthly",
        "EB": 46.33,
        "yoy_pct": 124.5,
        "units_million": 6.35,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "as_of": "2026-06"
      }
    ],
    "bottleneck_role": "Secondary vs power/HBM/optics for training clusters; HDD heads/test capacity and NAND allocation to enterprise SSD are the soft constraints; not usually the binding GW limit"
  },
  "pillar_optics": {
    "label_zh": "光模块 800G / 1.6T / 3.2T",
    "geography_default": "global_supply",
    "unit": "million_modules_or_USD_bn — GW not applicable",
    "current_and_forward": [
      {
        "metric": "Goldman Sachs high-speed optical module shipments",
        "800G_mu": {
          "2026": 45,
          "2027": 49
        },
        "1p6T_mu": {
          "2026": 33,
          "2027": 71
        },
        "3p2T_mu": {
          "2027": 23,
          "2028": 68
        },
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global",
        "as_of": "2026-09 GS revision summaries"
      },
      {
        "metric": "GS optical transceiver market value",
        "USD_bn": {
          "2026": 67.7,
          "2027": 131.4,
          "2028": 148.5
        },
        "800G_plus_CAGR_pct_about": 69,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Supplier share (LightCounting 2025)",
        "InnoLight_share_pct_about": 23.4,
        "Coherent_share_pct_about": 16,
        "top5_share_pct_about": 56,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "global",
        "note": "InnoLight #1 three consecutive years per LightCounting summaries"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Supply constraint narrative 2026–27",
        "nature": "estimate",
        "note": "Orders exceed InP EML / laser / DSP output (~30% gap cited in secondary); 1.6T volume year 2026, main shipment driver 2027; lead times elevated"
      }
    ],
    "quarterly_note": "Credible public quarterly unit splits rare — treat annual GS figures as estimate; QoQ = scenario only",
    "bottleneck_role": "Scale-out fabric bottleneck for multi-rack clusters; can delay cluster bring-up even when GPUs exist"
  },
  "pillar_power": {
    "label_zh": "电力 / 可通电容量 / 并网",
    "geography_default": "US_focus",
    "see_also": [
      "us_totals",
      "operators",
      "quarterly_deliverable_GW"
    ],
    "current_and_forward_summary": [
      {
        "metric": "Epoch US covered AI IT now",
        "gw": 11.85,
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "US"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Goldman US DC demand",
        "gw": {
          "2025": 31,
          "2026": 41,
          "2027": 66
        },
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "US",
        "load": "all_DC_demand_70pct_util"
      },
      {
        "metric": "SemiAnalysis US IT additions",
        "gw": {
          "2026": 21,
          "2027": 38
        },
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "US"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Grid Strategies — realistic DC through 2030 vs utility queues",
        "gw_through_2030_about": 65,
        "note": "Utility forecasts overstate ~40%; ERCOT/PJM queues >> credible projects",
        "nature": "estimate",
        "scope": "US"
      },
      {
        "metric": "SemiAnalysis BTM / firm generation constraint",
        "nature": "estimate",
        "note": "Net-new firm ELCC ~15 GW/yr near term; BTM gas often needed for multi-GW campuses; +21→+84 GW US DC path to 2030 cited in free notes"
      }
    ],
    "bottleneck_role": "Primary binding constraint for US GW energization 2026H2–2028 in most bank/ SemiAnalysis narratives; chips often available ahead of interconnect"
  },
  "bottleneck_when": {
    "nature": "scenario",
    "flag": "SOFTEST synthesis — desk judgment on cited sources",
    "phases": [
      {
        "period": "now–2026Q4",
        "primary": "Power interconnect / transformers / permitting (US)",
        "secondary": "HBM4 / CoWoS allocation for Rubin+Helios ramp",
        "tertiary": "1.6T optics / EML lasers"
      },
      {
        "period": "2027",
        "primary": "Power still #1 for US multi-GW campuses; chip TDP implied ~38 GW global vs slower US energization",
        "secondary": "HBM4 + CoWoS (CPU joins CoWoS → AMD/Venice competes with GPUs)",
        "tertiary": "1.6T→3.2T optics volume; enterprise SSD NAND allocation",
        "note": "Storage rarely stops a cluster from lighting GPUs first"
      }
    ]
  },
  "extended_operators_neoclouds": [
    {
      "operator": "Cloudflare (NET)",
      "ai_gpu_MW_GW": null,
      "data_gap": true,
      "nature": "reported_qualitative",
      "disclosures": [
        "No public MW/GW GPU fleet size found in earnings/press as of 2026-09-29",
        "CEO: invest behind demand; GPU util toward 70–80%; claims ~10x work per GPU vs hyperscaler rent model",
        "Network CapEx ~13% of revenue (FY2025 guidance narrative) — CapEx-light relative to GPU clouds",
        "Workers AI / Infire inference engine; multi-GPU for large models (blog) — cluster size undisclosed"
      ],
      "scope": "global_edge_network",
      "sources": [
        "Cloudflare earnings Q&A 2026",
        "blog.cloudflare.com Infire / high-performance LLMs"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "DigitalOcean (DOCN)",
      "new_capacity_2026_MW": 31,
      "phasing": {
        "early_ramp_MW_about": 6,
        "H2_2026_remaining_MW_about": 25
      },
      "total_committed_capacity_MW_about": 155,
      "incremental_committed_2027_2028_MW": 20,
      "equipment_finance_facility_USD": 725000000.0,
      "nature": "reported",
      "data_gap": false,
      "notes": "Company frames as AI-Native / inference; CapEx intensity cited ~$20–25M per MW in secondary articles (estimate)",
      "capex_per_MW_USD_m_secondary": {
        "low": 20,
        "high": 25,
        "nature": "estimate"
      },
      "scope": "mostly_US_facilities_disclosed",
      "as_of": "Q2 2026 earnings / Sep 2026 equipment facility",
      "sources": [
        "DOCN Q2 2026 results",
        "Business Wire equipment finance 2026-09-10",
        "Yahoo/secondary on 31MW buildout"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "SpaceX — AI segment (xAI / SpaceXAI compute)",
      "distinct_from": "SpaceX Space (launch/rockets) and Connectivity (Starlink) segments",
      "nameplate_compute_GW_about": 1.4,
      "nature_nameplate": "reported_via_filing_coverage",
      "epoch_US_IT_GW_about": 1.3,
      "nature_epoch": "estimate",
      "AI_capex_Q2_2026_USD_bn_about": 15.8,
      "Space_segment_capex_Q2_2026_USD_bn_about": 1.17,
      "AI_share_of_H1_2026_capex_pct_about": 82.7,
      "musk_target_compute_GW_EOY2027": 10,
      "nature_target": "reported_statement_ambition",
      "data_gap": false,
      "notes": [
        "After common-control combination, SpaceX AI segment includes AI compute, Grok, and X",
        "1.4 GW and CapEx figures are AI-compute related — NOT satellite/launch CapEx",
        "Satellite/launch remain separate Space segment (much smaller CapEx in Q2'26 coverage)",
        "10 GW by end-2027 is Musk employee-meeting ambition — treat as scenario until energized"
      ],
      "scope": "US_Memphis_Southaven_primary",
      "sources": [
        "SpaceX S-1 / earnings coverage 2026",
        "PitchBook / TECHi summaries",
        "Epoch Colossus",
        "Tom's Hardware Musk 10GW quote"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "SpaceX — Space / Starlink (non-AI)",
      "ai_gpu_MW_GW": null,
      "data_gap": true,
      "nature": "reported_segment_separate",
      "notes": "Launch & satellite CapEx exist but are NOT AI GPU capacity; do not fold into AI GW rankings",
      "orbital_AI_concept": "Starmind / orbital DC discussed in press — not current energized terrestrial AI GW"
    },
    {
      "operator": "Nebius (NBIS)",
      "YE2026_contracted_power_GW": 5.0,
      "nature_contracted": "reported",
      "YE2026_connected_power_GW_range": [
        0.8,
        1.0
      ],
      "nature_connected": "reported",
      "deploy_from_2027_GW_per_year": ">1",
      "nature_deploy": "reported_guidance",
      "Q2_2026_capex_USD_bn_about": 5.7,
      "Q2_2026_AI_cloud_revenue_USD_m": 574.9,
      "ARR_USD_bn_about": 3.0,
      "epoch_US_IT_MW": 50,
      "epoch_Finland_IT_MW": 75,
      "nature_epoch": "estimate",
      "US_owned_sites": [
        "Missouri up to ~1.2 GW",
        "Pennsylvania up to ~1.2 GW (phased from 2027)"
      ],
      "data_gap": false,
      "notes": "Contracted ≠ connected ≠ active/revenue-generating; company explicitly separates these",
      "scope": "global_US_and_Europe",
      "sources": [
        "Nebius Q2 2026 Letter to Shareholders 2026-08-12",
        "Epoch"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Lambda",
      "active_MW_total": null,
      "data_gap": true,
      "kansas_city_MW": {
        "from": 24,
        "to": "100+",
        "nature": "estimate_press"
      },
      "us_data_centers_count_about": 15,
      "microsoft_deal": "multibillion multi-year; tens of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs incl. GB300 NVL72 (press)",
      "nature": "estimate_press_private",
      "notes": "Private; no audited total active GW found",
      "sources": [
        "TradePoint / for(geeks) neocloud roundups 2026"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Crusoe",
      "contracted_AI_infra_GW_about": 4.9,
      "nature_contracted": "reported_company_press_Jun2026",
      "pipeline_GW_about": 40,
      "nature_pipeline": "reported_development_claim",
      "abilene_stargate_campus_GW": 1.2,
      "abilene_microsoft_campus_MW": 900,
      "energized_early_MW_about": 200,
      "nature_energized": "estimate_press",
      "data_gap": false,
      "notes": "Often landlord for Oracle/OpenAI/Microsoft — avoid double-count with tenant GW",
      "sources": [
        "Crusoe Jun 2026 contracted 4.9 GW announcement via secondary",
        "DCD Abilene"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Applied Digital (APLD)",
      "operational_MW_Polaris_Forge1": 175,
      "nature_operational": "reported",
      "contracted_critical_IT_GW": 1.41,
      "nature_contracted": "reported",
      "contracted_revenue_USD_bn_about": 36,
      "data_gap": false,
      "notes": "AI factory landlord model (leases to CoreWeave / hyperscalers) — tenant GPU MW separate",
      "as_of": "FY2026 / Jul 2026 RFS",
      "sources": [
        "Applied Digital FY2026 results / DEF 14A",
        "Converge Digest 75MW phase"
      ]
    },
    {
      "operator": "Vultr / Together / RunPod / Fluidstack / similar",
      "ai_gpu_MW_GW": null,
      "data_gap": true,
      "nature": "data_gap",
      "notes": "No credible public total MW/GW fleet disclosure located in this pass"
    }
  ]
}